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Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-26T20:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32223/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the SE in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S10W10, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T17:00Z. This CME is observed faintly in SOHO and STEREO COR2A, so some uncertainty lies in the true leading edge and width in this analysis. This event is followed shortly by CME 2024-07-26T21:24Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front. Arrival signature is characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to abpve 10 p/cc. Signature may indicates an arrival of a combined shock of this CME merged with the preceding CME and two following CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T16:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32227/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=676.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T01:23Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-29T16:38Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =25.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T21:02Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T14:34Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-29T10:32Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_012300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.55 hour(s)
Difference: 6.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-27T05:47Z

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